Methodology

Our Commitment to Data Integrity

Every number on TrackTheDollar comes from official U.S. government data sources. We do not estimate, interpolate, or adjust raw government data unless explicitly stated (e.g., net liquidity calculations). All data shows its source, last update time, and confidence indicator.

Data Sources

U.S. Treasury — Debt to the Penny

api.fiscaldata.treasury.gov/v2/accounting/od/debt_to_penny
Frequency

Daily (business days)

Delay

1 business day

Total public debt outstanding, debt held by public, and intragovernmental holdings. The authoritative source for the national debt figure.

Total Public DebtDebt Held by PublicIntragovernmental Holdings

U.S. Treasury — Daily Treasury Statement

api.fiscaldata.treasury.gov/v1/accounting/dts
Frequency

Daily (business days)

Delay

1 business day

The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance — the U.S. government's checking account at the Federal Reserve. Also includes daily deposits and withdrawals.

TGA BalanceDaily Cash Position

U.S. Treasury — Monthly Treasury Statement

api.fiscaldata.treasury.gov/v1/accounting/mts
Frequency

Monthly

Delay

~15 business days after month end

Comprehensive monthly report of federal receipts, outlays, and the resulting surplus or deficit. Includes breakdowns by spending category and revenue source.

Federal ReceiptsFederal OutlaysBudget Surplus/DeficitSpending by CategoryRevenue by Source

Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)

api.stlouisfed.org/fred
Frequency

Varies by series

Delay

Varies (same day to 2 months)

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis maintains FRED, the most comprehensive database of U.S. economic data. We pull monetary policy, rates, and financial conditions data.

WALCL — Fed Balance Sheet (weekly)RRPONTSYD — Reverse Repo Facility (daily)FEDFUNDS — Fed Funds Rate (monthly)DGS10 / DGS2 — Treasury Yields (daily)T10Y2Y — Yield Curve Spread (daily)M2SL — M2 Money Supply (monthly)CPIAUCSL — Consumer Price Index (monthly)GFDEGDQ188S — Debt-to-GDP Ratio (quarterly)A091RC1Q027SBEA — Interest Payments (quarterly)

U.S. Treasury — Auction Results

api.fiscaldata.treasury.gov/v1/accounting/od/auctions_query
Frequency

Per auction (multiple per week)

Delay

Same day

Results from Treasury security auctions including bills, notes, bonds, TIPS, and floating rate notes. Includes yield, bid-to-cover ratio, and allocation data.

Auction YieldsBid-to-Cover RatiosAllocation Percentages

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v2/timeseries/data/
Frequency

Monthly

Delay

~2 weeks after reference month

The BLS publishes the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the primary measure of inflation in the United States. We track both headline CPI and Core CPI (excluding food and energy).

CPI All Items (CUSR0000SA0)Core CPI (CUSR0000SA0L1E)

USAspending.gov

api.usaspending.gov/api/v2/agency/097/
Frequency

Annual (by fiscal year)

Delay

Varies (quarterly updates)

Official source for federal spending data. We track Department of Defense (Agency 097) budgetary resources, obligations, and outlays across fiscal years.

DoD Budgetary ResourcesDoD ObligationsDoD OutlaysDoD Contract Awards

Foreign Assistance — USAID Open Data

data.usaid.gov/resource/k87i-9i5x.json
Frequency

Annual

Delay

Varies

U.S. foreign assistance data from the USAID open data portal via Socrata API. Covers economic, military, and humanitarian aid by country and sector.

Total Obligations by CountryTotal DisbursementsSecurity Assistance

Calculated Metrics

Net Liquidity

Net Liquidity = Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL) − Treasury General Account (TGA) − Reverse Repo Facility (RRP)

Net liquidity approximates the total available liquidity in the financial system. When the Fed shrinks its balance sheet (QT), or when the TGA fills up (Treasury borrowing), or when RRP usage rises, net liquidity decreases. This metric is widely used by macro analysts to gauge financial conditions.

Caveats
  • This is a simplified approximation, not an official Fed metric
  • Component data updates at different frequencies (WALCL weekly, TGA daily, RRP daily)
  • Does not account for all liquidity factors (e.g., bank lending, foreign repo)

Debt Growth Rates

Daily Change = Today's Debt − Yesterday's Debt

We calculate daily, 30-day, and 12-month debt growth directly from the Debt to the Penny series. The average daily increase is the 30-day change divided by 30.

Caveats
  • Debt only updates on business days; weekends show no change
  • Large single-day swings often reflect auction settlement timing, not fiscal policy changes

Monetary Expansion Proxy

Score = 0.35 × WALCL_z + 0.30 × WRESBAL_z + 0.20 × M2_growth_z + 0.15 × debt_velocity_norm

A composite score (0–100) estimating monetary expansion pressure. Uses z-scores over rolling windows to normalize each component, then weights them into a single indicator.

Caveats
  • This is a derived estimate, not a published government statistic
  • Z-scores are sensitive to the lookback window chosen (13 weeks)
  • Does not capture all monetary policy channels (e.g., forward guidance, credit conditions)

War Spending Proxy

Score = 0.45 × DoD_obligations_z + 0.20 × contract_share_z + 0.35 × security_aid_z

A composite score (0–100) estimating defense/military spending activity. Combines DoD obligation growth, the share of contracts in awards, and security assistance growth.

Caveats
  • This is a derived estimate, not a published government statistic
  • Annual data means slow signal updates
  • Security assistance classification depends on sector labels in USAID data

Year-over-Year Changes

YoY Change = (Current Period − Prior Year Period) / |Prior Year Period| × 100

Spending and revenue YoY comparisons use the Monthly Treasury Statement's prior fiscal year-to-date figures as reported by Treasury.

Caveats
  • Fiscal year runs October 1 through September 30
  • Calendar effects (e.g., payment timing shifts) can distort monthly comparisons

Update Frequency & Caching

MetricSource UpdateOur Cache TTLFreshness
National DebtDaily1 hourNear real-time
TGA BalanceDaily1 hourNear real-time
Fed Balance SheetWeekly (Thu)1 hourWeekly
Reverse RepoDaily1 hourNear real-time
Treasury YieldsDaily1 hourNear real-time
Fed Funds RateMonthly1 hourMonthly
Receipts & OutlaysMonthly24 hoursMonthly
M2 Money SupplyMonthly24 hoursMonthly
CPI / InflationMonthly24 hoursMonthly
Debt-to-GDPQuarterly24 hoursQuarterly
Dollar Index (DTWEXBGS)Weekly5 minWeekly
Defense Spending (DoD)Annual (FY)1 hourAnnual
Foreign AssistanceAnnual1 hourAnnual

Known Limitations

  • Government data sources may experience delays or outages. When a source is unavailable, we serve cached data and indicate staleness.

  • The 'Debt to the Penny' series only updates on business days. Weekend and holiday values reflect the most recent business day.

  • Monthly Treasury Statement data has a ~15 business day reporting lag. Current-month figures are not available until mid-following month.

  • FRED series update frequencies vary. Some daily series (like yields) may have gaps on holidays or during government shutdowns.

  • Net Liquidity is a widely-used but simplified approximation. It does not capture all factors affecting financial system liquidity.

  • AI-generated summaries (Phase 2) will always cite specific data points. However, AI interpretations should not be treated as financial advice.

  • Historical data depth varies by source. Some FRED series go back decades; Treasury FiscalData API coverage may be more limited.

All data on TrackTheDollar is sourced from public U.S. government APIs. This platform is not affiliated with the U.S. Treasury or Federal Reserve. Nothing on this site constitutes financial advice.

Latest U.S. Government Financial News