Glossary
Key macro economics terms used across TrackTheDollar dashboards.
Breakeven Inflation
The difference between the yield on a nominal Treasury bond and a TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Security) of the same maturity. It represents the market's expectation for average annual inflation over that period.
CPI (Consumer Price Index)
A measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services. Published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core CPI
CPI excluding volatile food and energy prices. Provides a cleaner signal of underlying inflation trends.
Debt-to-GDP Ratio
Total national debt divided by gross domestic product. A key measure of a country's ability to service its debt. The U.S. ratio has exceeded 120% of GDP.
DXY / Dollar Index
A measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. The Trade-Weighted Broad Dollar Index (DTWEXBGS) from the Federal Reserve is the most comprehensive version.
Fed Balance Sheet
The total assets held by the Federal Reserve, including Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities. Expands during quantitative easing (QE) and contracts during quantitative tightening (QT).
Fed Funds Rate
The interest rate at which depository institutions lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight on an uncollateralized basis. Set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Fiscal Deficit
The difference between government revenue and spending in a fiscal year. When spending exceeds revenue, the gap is funded by issuing new Treasury securities, adding to the national debt.
FRED
Federal Reserve Economic Data — a database maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis with hundreds of thousands of economic time series from dozens of sources.
Gold Fixing Price
The benchmark price for gold set daily in London by ICE Benchmark Administration. Quoted in U.S. dollars per troy ounce. Widely used as a store-of-value indicator and inflation hedge.
Housing Starts (HOUST)
The number of new residential construction projects that have begun during a given month, reported as a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in thousands of units.
Intragovernmental Holdings
The portion of the national debt owed by the government to itself — primarily through trust funds like Social Security and Medicare that hold Treasury securities.
M2 Money Supply
A broad measure of the money supply that includes currency, checking deposits, savings deposits, money market securities, and small time deposits. Published weekly by the Federal Reserve.
Mortgage Rate (30Y Fixed)
The average interest rate offered for conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, published weekly by Freddie Mac as part of the Primary Mortgage Market Survey.
Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS)
The total number of paid U.S. workers excluding farm employees, government employees, and employees of nonprofit organizations. Published monthly as part of the BLS Employment Situation report.
QE (Quantitative Easing)
A monetary policy tool where the Federal Reserve purchases large amounts of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities to inject liquidity into the financial system and lower long-term interest rates.
QT (Quantitative Tightening)
The reverse of QE — the Federal Reserve allows bonds on its balance sheet to mature without reinvesting the proceeds, reducing the money supply and tightening financial conditions.
Reserve Balances
Deposits that commercial banks hold at the Federal Reserve. A key indicator of banking system liquidity. Tracked via the WRESBAL series on FRED.
Retail Sales (RSXFS)
Total receipts at stores that sell merchandise to the general public, excluding food services. Published monthly by the Census Bureau. Consumer spending drives roughly 70% of U.S. GDP.
RRP (Reverse Repo)
The overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility operated by the New York Fed. Financial institutions deposit cash at the Fed in exchange for Treasury securities overnight. A key measure of excess liquidity.
TGA (Treasury General Account)
The U.S. government's primary operating account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. When the TGA rises, liquidity is drained from the banking system; when it falls, liquidity is injected.
UMCSENT (Consumer Sentiment)
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. A survey-based measure of consumer confidence about the economy. Values above 80 generally indicate optimism; below 60 indicate pessimism.
Unemployment Rate (UNRATE)
The percentage of the labor force that is jobless, actively seeking work, and available to take a job. Published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Yield Curve
A graph showing Treasury yields across different maturities. A normal curve slopes upward (longer maturities = higher yields). An inverted curve (short rates > long rates) has preceded every U.S. recession since the 1970s.
Yield Curve Spread (10Y-2Y)
The difference between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields. A negative spread (inversion) is a widely watched recession indicator.