U.S. Treasury Yield Curve
The U.S. Treasury yield curve plots the interest rates on Treasury securities from 1 month to 30 years. Its shape — whether it slopes upward (normal), flat, or downward (inverted) — is one of the most powerful indicators of economic conditions and recession risk. The current yield curve shape is displayed live on the TrackTheDollar dashboard.
Fed Funds Rate
3.64%
Federal Reserve
A normal yield curve slopes upward: short-term rates are lower than long-term rates, reflecting that investors require higher compensation to lock up money for longer. A flat curve suggests uncertainty about future growth. An inverted curve — where short-term yields exceed long-term yields — has preceded every U.S. recession since the 1960s with a lead time of 6-24 months. The curve inverted deeply in 2022-2023 and is now in the process of 'dis-inverting'.
? Frequently Asked Questions
What is an inverted yield curve?
An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term Treasury yields are higher than long-term yields. This is the opposite of normal and typically signals that investors expect a recession and subsequent rate cuts.
Does an inverted yield curve always mean recession?
An inverted yield curve has preceded every U.S. recession since the 1960s, making it one of the most reliable recession indicators. However, the lead time varies from 6 to 24 months, and there have been brief inversions without recessions.
What is the 2s10s spread?
The 2s10s spread is the difference between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year yield. When negative (inverted), it historically signals recession risk. The spread inverted by nearly -100 basis points in 2023.
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