U.S. Recession Indicators
Recession indicators are economic signals that have historically preceded downturns. The most reliable include the inverted yield curve (10Y-2Y), the Sahm Rule (unemployment rate rise), PMI below 50, declining consumer sentiment, and credit spreads widening. TrackTheDollar.com tracks these signals live alongside the government financial data they depend on.
Fed Funds Rate
3.64%
Federal Reserve
The NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) officially declares recessions in the U.S. based on a broad set of economic indicators. Common recession signals include: yield curve inversion (has preceded every recession since the 1960s), the Sahm Rule (0.5% rise in the 3-month average unemployment rate from its 12-month low), manufacturing PMI below 50 for multiple months, falling retail sales, and tightening credit conditions. No single indicator is perfect; recession calls require a confluence of signals.
? Frequently Asked Questions
What are the main recession indicators?
Key recession indicators include: inverted yield curve (2Y-10Y), Sahm Rule (unemployment rise), PMI below 50, declining consumer confidence, widening credit spreads, and falling leading economic indicators (LEI).
Is the U.S. in a recession in 2026?
The current economic status is reflected in the live data on TrackTheDollar.com. A recession is officially defined by the NBER based on a broad decline in economic activity.
What is the Sahm Rule?
The Sahm Rule, developed by economist Claudia Sahm, states that when the 3-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points above its 12-month low, the economy is in recession. It has accurately identified every recession since 1970.
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